We don't know what the future will hold, but we can build models of it, ask questions about it, create scenarios of it, and read up on its trends. Sci-fi can also help us out considerably.
Here are 11 questions you should be asking about the future:
1. What will it mean to be human? Being human in 15-20 years will look a lot different. Already we are nearly glued to our mobile devices, and do almost everything online. We are also seeing the rise of transhumanism--the use of technology to advance human longevity--and opportunities for technology to radically enhance our lives. People are inserting chips into their hands as embedded ID devices. Where will all this go? Will we carry implants that allow us to upload information? We are seeing it happening already.
2. Will I be driving a car? Sounds like a silly question--perhaps. But look at the rise of autonomous vehicles. Advancements in autonomous vehicles are moving very rapidly. In Germany we already have seen the first autonomous transport truck released on the Autobahn. But will we be driving? There is no reason to think we will. Autonomous vehicles will prove to be more reliable on the road than humans--alas, to err is human. In fact, it is not a stretch of the imagination to see a time in the near future in which human drivers will pay much higher insurance premiums than those carted around by computers. And this is all before the advent of the Apple car, which will most likely bring a user-friendliness to the whole technology and thus drive up its popularity.
3. Will we see a rise in surveillance? We are seeing social issues heating up all over the western world. People want to feel safe; and the best way is to give up privacy for advanced surveillance, such as what one sees in the UK. Already, much of our daily lives--given that we live in a virtual world of social networks--is recorded. In fact we've seen that our mobile phones already record a great deal of our lives that, if ever hacked into, one could use to literally clone us. As social tensions rise, we will see a rise in surveillance and a sharp decline in privacy.
4. Will we colonize Mars? If Elon Musk has anything to do with it, we will. But we have to come to an understanding of what we mean by 'we'. If by 'we' you mean humans in general, then yes. But if you mean by 'we' the whole of the human population of Earth, or anyone who wants, then the answer is likely no. With the current price of $6 Billion to get the first 4 people there, reaching the great red planet will be out of reach to the majority of Earthlings. However, it is very likely that in the next 10 years we will be reading about a colony being established there.
5. Will robots steal my job? If you are in a middle management position, it's likely. Robots are becoming more sophisticated and are already being used in numerous industries, including financial planning (yes--financial planning!). You will definitely need to continue learning, stretching, and thinking about how you'll stay viable over the next 10 years. The world of work is going to change radically as 5 million jobs will be lost to robots by 2020--and that's a modest number.
6. What about killer robots? With the rise of technology comes the rise of technologies used to threaten and destroy in ways more devastating than ever. We are also seeing the possibility of rogue robots, i.e., robots programmed to deal safely with humans, but whose emergent intelligence and consciousness create a 'flip' in which humans are seen as a threat. Once this happens, it will be very difficult for us to defend against them. It is critical that AI designers maintain a strict code of ethics. Better yet, there would be limits to the kinds of questions scientists and AI designers can ask.
7. Will I marry a robot? Sounds like a sick question--for some; yet there are all kinds of stories around the internet in which some people actually see a robot as a very good life-companion--at least this iteration of them, until they grow in super-intelligence and begin to subjugate. Some think they would make perfectly passively programmed mates who will put up with all their nonsense and cater to them hand-and-foot. In a world of selfies and egoists, this is unsurprising. Who wants a free human being when you can have a programmed machine? The question is, what will 'marriage' mean at that point?
8. What about Minority Report? We are already seeing behaviour-predictive software being introduced to a division of the Chicago Police Department; and we are already experiencing advertising catered to our tastes and surf habits online. We are thus not too far from 'mind-reading' technology being ubiquitously used as crime prevention. This relates to our surveillance question above.
9. Will I live to 1000 years old? Some argue that the first 1000 year old human being has already been born. Many put a great deal of hope in the exponential growth of technology to add years to human life. Some argue for a linear model of longevity, namely that technology will add continuous years of life that will allow one to take advantage of ever-emerging technology; on and on it goes until one reaches 200, 300, ...n years old.
10. What should my children learn? This is a very difficult question, and based on what you value. There are innumerable models of education, from teaching Latin and classic literature to teaching advanced innovation skills. It's very difficult to prepare children for a future we know little about, and for jobs that don't exist yet. However, while some things will indeed change, others simply won't, such as integrity, character, virtue, and one's moral responsibility to another--those universal to the human experience, and unlikely to change greatly in the future.
11. Where do I put my hope? There are many places people will put their hope in the future: government, technology, machines, longevity, their social or religious group, family, and on and on. Where do you put your hope? This will remain one of the most pressing questions as we embark on a future that is largely unknown, and wrought with great opportunity and great risk.
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