In an interview last October at the Wall Street Journal conference in Laguna Beach California, Tim Cook--CEO of Apple Computers--claimed that the auto industry is on the verge of "a massive change." While there may have been those who six months ago disagreed with Cook's statement, it's hard to disagree now.
Massive change is a total shake-up of an industry, or series of industries, in which disruptive innovation threatens to up-end conventional models and markets. The term was coined by Canadian designer Bruce Mau whose exhibit of the same name drew crowds in Chicago, Vancouver, and Toronto back in 2005. According to Mau, we are living in massive change globally as design reigns at the centre of the built world, rather than merely an add-on to corporate brand campaigns.
There are myriad ways we can see massive change happening in the auto industry. Here are a few:
1. Tim Cook says so: When the CEO of one of the largest tech companies in the world says something about technology, it's most likely correct.
2. Google approaching congress: Google is lobbying US Congress to rapidly overhaul transportation laws to accommodate self-driving vehicles. The tech giant wants this done quickly, it claims, so the infrastructure will be ready when its vehicle is.
3. Affordable EV: Not only are electric vehicles becoming more ubiquitous, they are becoming more affordable--thanks to Elon Musk. His $30,000 US Model3 is a huge turn in the market that will attract adoring buyers from all over. The Economist recently published an article claiming that Tesla is dominating the market with no competitors--yet!
4. Rumours: You know you're watching something emerging when there are rumours exploding all over the place. The big topic of the rumour mill is Apple Computers and its hints at the release of a self-driving car by 2020.
5. Strange labs: There are reports in California and now Berlin Germany of secret innovation labs that are giving off the strange sounds of what witnesses claim to be car motors. And there is reason to believe the labs belong to Apple. How cool is that! There has been a great deal of popularity among mobile technology companies with their innovation labs, but now we are seeing it applied to automobiles. Imagine rooms of engineers and designers working away on the solutions of a few years from now--definite massive change.
6. Battery stations: When battery charging stations are popping up all over the place, you know the car industry is in massive change--an alternative to gasoline is market for sure.
7. Oil Crises: There are oil crises everywhere; and with the popularity of climate change policy-making, and the bad-rap of fossil fuels, the 'politics' of energy is driving the auto industry into this new direction.
8. License plate transformation: It is rumoured that the Apple car will be the first to have digital license plates, given the hire of a veteran engineer who specializes in fleet management and digital license plates. Such license plates would provide ways for registration to be changed over, and fleets of self-driving cars to be managed.
9. Infrastructure design: This is not just the introduction of a new kind of car, but also of a new way of driving and providing transportation services that will have impact on, among other things, urban planning and re-design. Where do self-driving cars go once they have dropped off their occupant(s)? Do they go home, or pick up others. We are seeing already services like BMW's DriveNow that provides people with vehicles to drive and park throughout San Francisco. Again, shaking up the transportation industry.
10. The fusion of technology and driving: Whether its Uber or self-driving transport trucks, we are seeing how the same principles of technological disruption that took place in the music, movies, and news industries are threatening, and up-ending, transportation. How many jobs will be lost in the next 3-5 years from self-driving transport trucks? How many jobs have already been lost to Uber? This is massive change!
The auto industry is a powder keg waiting to explode with innovation. We're seeing it all around us; and it's both exciting and concerning at the same time. The same issues we're experiencing with our mobile devices and the internet of things will be applied to the new technology of automobiles: with the new sense of technological freedom will come with a completely different set of privacy restriction, controls, and transparency. The entire industry, and those industries feeding off it, is going to be radically different in only a few years. And, as with all massive changes, there will be those on the wrong side of change, and those on the right side of change.
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